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07/25/2014 – 30 YR Treasury Bond

  • July 25, 2014
  • 30 YR Treasury Bond

Issued: 07/24/2014

September 30 year U.S. Treasury bond:

1. Today’s 30 year treasury bond continues to react off the recent completion of our longer-term $138.20 upside target.

2. Bonds are likely to continue down to $137.15 (or lower) into Friday July 25 (+/-1 day).

3. Therefore, bonds can be shorted at current prices (current price $137.26) for the above decline.

4. Partial short position exit should be taken at/near $137.15, the remainder held for price targets on the downside to be message a subsequent update.

5. A protective sell stop should be placed at $138.12. This stop will be moved lower as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams

Issued: 07/24/2014

September 30 year U.S. Treasury bond:

1. As noted in today’s September 30 year U.S. Treasury bond update, the bond market would normally bottom on Friday, July 25 (+/-1 day) and test/attempt $137.15 (or lower) in the process.

2. Today’s (Thursday, July 24) session declined to a session low of $137.21 before closing the day at $137.28.

3. As you may know, a market in a strong uptrend will often not touch its normal downside price target ($137.15 in this case) due to the ongoing bullish forces. There is a possibility that this may be the case in the larger current bond market advance.

4. Therefore, due to the nearby price target of $137.15 and prudence, all but aggressive traders should exit their short position from $137.26 at current prices ($137.31). Aggressive can follow through with the trade as originally outlined.

David Williams

Issued: 07/25/2014

September 30 year U.S. Treasury bond:

1. Yesterdays (Thursday, July 24) September 30 year U.S. Treasury bond report indicated the likelihood that yesterdays low ($137.21) would mark the bottom in the current ongoing treasury bond rally. This prompted the exit of our earlier short position and resulted in a small (5/6 tick) loss.

2. Today’s September 30 year U.S. Treasury bond market advanced powerfully, further confirming the report. Will message any further entry or indication as the market confirms.

David Williams

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
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