07/17/2014 – Crude Oil

Issued: 07/16/2014

Aug. crude oil:

1. Aug. Crude oil recently completed our forecast $99.50 downside target (recent session low, $99.01) noted in previous updates and has reversed to the upside.

2. Under normal conditions, continued hourly and especially a daily close below $101.25 today (Wed., July 16) will indicate new short entry for a tradable decline for a second test/attempt at $99.50 (or lower). Will update with protective stop etc. as the market confirms.

3. However, the following Wildcard exists: Continued hourly or especially a daily close above $101.60 in Aug. crude will indicate a fast advance to at/near $103.50 into Thurs. July 17 (+/-1 day). Aggressive can use continued hourly and especially a daily close above $101.30 for an earlier long entry.

4. Regarding the wildcard, once confirmed, partial long position exit should be taken at/near $102.50, the remainder exited at/near $103.50.

5. A protective sell stop should be placed at $100.40. This stop will be moved higher as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams

Issued: 07/17/2014

Aug. crude oil:

1. Yesterday’s (Wed., July 16) Aug. crude oil session closed above $101.25 (noted in the previous update), negating any further short entry.

2. Yesterday’s Aug. crude session closed at $101.52, which gave the earliest indication for new long entry and the forecast wildcard advance to $102.50, then at/near $103.50 noted in yesterday’s update. Today’s session high has been $103.09, so far.

3. Those long from yesterday’s daily close (or higher) exited a portion of their long position at/near $102.50 (noted in the previous update) and remain long for a test/attempt at the $103.50 final upside target.

4. Important: Aug. crude oil rolls into September crude within a few days and this could effect the Aug. crude contract’s ability to complete $103.50 target.

5. Therefore, it is prudent to exit the majority of any remaining long position at/near $103.20 and hold any remainder for the original final target at/near $103.50. This adjustment would not be necessary under normal (non-contract rollover) conditions.

6. Our protective sell stop has been moved to $101.85. This stop will be moved higher as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams

Issued: 07/18/2014

Aug. crude oil:

1. Yesterday’s (Thursday, July 17) Aug. crude oil completed the forecast advance from our $101.30 (or higher) long entry to the $103.50 final upside target (yesterday’s session high, $103.94). This resulted in a successful trade. Will message any further entry or indication as the market confirms.

David Williams