07/07/2014 – Crude Oil

Issued: 07/07/2014

Aug. crude oil:

1. Our Wed., July 2 report forecast further decline in Aug. crude oil from $104.20 to $103.68 then $103.44 as the final downside target (or lower).

2. On Thursday, July 2 the $103.68 downside target was completed (session low, $103.67) and today the market completed the $103.44 final target (today’s session low, $103.32, so far).

3. Self-directed traders who participated in this move should be flat at this point based upon the completion of the $103.44 downside target. A daily close today above $103.44 is the stronger position and may prompt new long entry. Will update.

David Williams

Issued: 07/02/2014

Aug. crude oil:

1. Today’s Aug. crude oil closed below $104.45 which is an unusual market position and the earliest confirmation for further decline and a test of both $103.68 then at/near $103.44 (or lower).

2. Aggressive: At/near $104.45 is now short selling territory if touched. Will message any alternate (lower) entry if the market is unable to reach at/near $104.45 on the upside.

3. Exit initial portions at/near $104.10, a second portion at/near $103.75 (against the $103.68 downside target noted in #1). Hold any remaining short position for final exit at/near $103.50.

4. Once short, place a protective buy stop at $104.86. This stop will be moved lower as the market continues to confirm. Will update.

David Williams

Issued: 07/03/2014

Aug. crude oil:

1. Today’s Aug. crude oil attempted higher prices (swing high, $104.26, so far) before declining sharply and completing the forecast $103.68 downside profit target noted in yesterday’s (Wed., July 2) update (today’s session low, $103.69, so far).

2. Because the main $103.68 downside target has been completed, we have canceled the sell limit/new short position aat/near $104.45.

3. Any further test/attempt at the final $103.44 (noted in yesterday’s update) remains important and may prompt further entry. Will update.

David Williams