07/02/2014 – Crude Oil

Issued: 07/01/2014

Aug. crude oil:

1. As noted in Monday’s (June 30) live meeting, the next important daily bottom in crude oil is due Tuesday, July 1 (+/-1 day). This bottom likely occurred one trading day early on Monday, June 30.

2. Therefore, $105.50/$30 is now buying territory/new long position if touched. Will message any alternate long entry if the $105.50/$30 remains untouched.

3. Initial upside price targets will be messaged if the market confirms as noted above.

4. Once long, place an initial protective sell stop at $104.50. This stop will be moved up as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams

Issued: 07/01/2014

Aug. crude:

1. Today’s Aug. crude declined and triggered our earlier noted buy limit between $105.50/$30 (session low, $104.60). Today’s session closed at $105.20.

2. The market is near a critical juncture on the downside, making the remainder of the week important.

3. Our protective sell stop remains at $104.50. Should this protective stop be triggered, new long entry will be messaged if the market reconfirms.

David Williams

Issued: 07/02/2014

Aug. crude oil:

1. Aug. crude oil remains at a critical juncture on the downside, with today (Wed., July 2) being the one trading day late period for an expected daily bottom.

2. A daily close today above $104.45 would indicate a fast advance to test/attempt at $105.92 (or higher).

3. However, the market has shown unusual behavior which indicates that a more important decline off the Wed., June 25 top may be underway. A daily close today below $104.45 would be the earliest confirmation of such a decline and would target $103.68 (or lower).

4. Our protective sell stop remains at $104.50. This stop will be moved higher if the market confirms.

David Williams

Issued: 07/02/2014

Aug. crude oil:

1. Today’s Aug. crude oil declined further and triggered our protective sell stop at $104.50. This resulted in a loss on the trade (approximately $.80/$1.00/contract depending on entry).

2. Today’s further decline is unusual behavior. A daily close today below $104.45 is the earliest confirmation of further decline and a test of $103.68 (or lower) noted in the previous update.

3. Should today’s Aug. crude oil close above $104.45 a long reentry remains a possible option. Will update if the market confirms.

David Williams

Issued: 07/02/2014