06/30/2014 – Crude Oil

Issued: 06/09/2014

July crude oil:

1. Today’s July crude oil continued on the recent forecast advance, making a session high of $103.70 (so far).

2. Self-directed traders based upon the Wed., June 4 update should exit a further portion of their long position from $102.46 (or higher) at current prices (current price, $103.54).

3. Our protective sell stop has been raised to $102.55. This stop will continue to be moved higher as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams

Issued: 06/09/2014

July crude oil:

1. The next important daily market top for July crude oil is Tuesday, June 10 (+/-1 day).

2. A daily close today, (Monday, June 9) and tomorrow, (Tuesday, June 10) above $104.18 is the stronger position, below $104.18, the weaker position with regard to the above noted top. Today’s session high has been $104.20, so far.

3. Self-directed traders remain long 1/3 of their final position for the possibility of higher prices.

4. Our protective sell stop has been raised to $103.30. The stop will be moved higher as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams

Issued: 06/19/2014

Aug. crude:

1. Today’s Aug. crude oil session completed the recently forecast $105.31 downside target and relieved some of the overbought pressure on the upside. The completion of $105.31 (rather then staying slightly above the number as recently discussed) is normal behavior and does not alter our longer term outlook for substantially higher prices in crude oil.

2. Yesterdays (Wed., June 18) crude oil report indicated an immediate roll from July into Aug. contracts for those already long from Tuesday, June 5. The report also indicated potential new long entry.

3. Therefore, an updated protective sell stop is required. This stop should be placed at $104.60 (basis Aug.) and will be adjusted higher as we move closer to Monday, June 23.

4. Although not an outright forecast, there is a possibility of a price breakout on the upside (above $106.84) into Monday June 23 (+1 day). Worst-case, Monday, July 23 (+/-1 day) will mark an important daily bottom for further advance in Aug. crude oil. Will update.

David Williams

Issued: 06/04/2014

July crude oil:

1. Today’s (Wed. June 4) crude oil session displayed bearish behavior and closed poorly (daily close $102.39).

2. Although lower prices remain possible, continued hourly and especially a daily close above $102.19/$15 will indicate a tradable advance to at/near $103.00 (or higher) into early next week (week of June 10).

3. No new long entry is being taken on the above indication as yet. Will update in tomorrow’s (Thursday, June 5) session if the market confirms.

David Williams

Issued: 06/19/2014

Aug. crude:

1. Yesterday’s (Wed., June 18) crude oil report indicated a roll into the Aug. crude oil contract (from July) and new long entry in Aug. crude (for those not long) based upon yesterday’s daily close of $105.72.

2. Traders long from yesterday’s close at $105.72 should exit initial long positions at current prices (current price $106.10).

3. For all positions (those who entered either on June 5 or June 18) our protective stop has been raised to $104.98. This stop will continue to be moved higher as the market continues to confirm. Will update.

David Williams

Issued: 06/30/2014

Aug. crude oil:

1. Today’s Aug. crude oil continued on the recent decline and triggered our remaining 1/3 protective sell stop at $104.69 noted in the previous update (today’s session low, $104.66, so far).

2. Today’s stop out successfully completes the trade from our June 5 long entry.

3. The next important daily market bottom for Aug. crude is Tuesday, July 1 (+/-1 day). This is important and will likely prompt new long entry. Will update.

David Williams

Issued: 06/20/2014

Aug. crude oil:

1. Our previous Aug. crude report (Thursday, June 19) indicated the likelihood of Aug. crude advancing above $106.84 into Monday, Jan. 23 (+/-1 day).

2. Today’s (Friday, June 20) session broke to slight new highs above $106.84, completing the forecast (today’s session high, $106.93, so far).

3. Traders long from $105.72 on June 18 should exit a second portion of their position at current prices (current price $106.68).

4. Our protective sell stop remains a $104.98. This stop will be moved higher as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams

Issued: 06/10/2014

July crude oil:

1. Today’s July crude oil made a new recent swing high of $105.06 before reversing and closing the day at $104.28. This close confirms the forecast Tues.,June 10 daily market top.

2. Self-directed traders remain long their final 1/3 position based upon the Thursday, June 5 daily close above $102.19 (Thursday, June 5 closed at $102.46, indicating new long entry).

3. Although a multi-day decline is the expected outcome based upon the Tuesday, June 10 daily market top, the possibility exists for a larger continuation move once the downside reaction is over.

4. Therefore, our protective sell stop has been raised to $103.80. This stop will continue to be moved higher as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams

Issued: 06/06/2014

July crude oil:

1. Our previous Wed., June 4 update indicated that hourly and especially daily close above $102.19/$15 in July crude oil would indicate a tradable advance to at/near $103.00 (or higher) into early next week (week of June 10).

2. Yesterday’s (Thursday, June 5) session made a session low of $101.60 but closed the day at $102.46, above the $102.19/$15 level. This confirmed the trade set up.

3. Today’s July crude oil advanced powerfully and completed the forecast $103.00 initial upside target (today’s session high, $103.07, so far).

4. Self-directed (traders based upon the Wed., June 4 update) exited a portion of their long position at/near $103.00 noted in the original update. Higher prices remain possible and will be messaged in a subsequent update.

5. A protective sell stop should be placed at $102.19. The stop will be moved higher as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams

Issued: 06/12/2014

July crude:

1. Today’s July crude further confirmed our longer-term forecast for substantially higher prices by breaking out on the upside and completing the $106.20 upside target noted in April 16 (and earlier) updates (today’s session high, $106.53, so far).

2. Self-directed traders remain long their final 1/3 position based upon the Thursday, June 5 daily close above $102.19 (Thursday, June 5 closed at $102.46, indicating new long entry).

3. Our protective sell stop has been raised $104.20. The stop will continue to be moved higher as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams

Issued: 06/12/2014

July crude:

1. July crude continues its forecast advance off the longer-term May monthly bottom (tonight’s Thursday, July 12 globex session high, $107.68). Significantly higher prices remain expected, as noted in previous updates.

2. Our protective sell stop has been raised to $105.60. This stop will continue to be moved higher as the market confirms.

David Williams

Issued: 06/23/2014

Aug. crude oil:

1. Today’s (Monday, June 23) Aug. crude further confirmed our recent forecast for a break to new recent highs into Monday, Jan. 23 (+/-1 day). Today’s session high has been $107.45, well above the June 13 $106.91 swing high.

2. Our final long position (from either the June 5 bottom or more recent June 18 long entry) awaits the possibility of substantially higher prices.

3. Our protective sell stop has been raised to $105.60. This stop will continue to be moved higher as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams

Issued: 06/18/2014

July/Aug. crude oil:

1. We remain long from the June 5 $102.46 long entry in July crude oil.

2. It is necessary to roll existing longs from July into the Aug. crude oil contract. Today’s (Wed., June 18) Aug. crude oil session made it’s second attempt at the $105.31 downside target (noted in recent Williams edge live meetings). Therefore, it is an ideal time to roll into the Aug. contract or initiate new long positions. Will update.

David Willliams

Issued: 06/23/2014

Aug. crude:

1. We remain long our final 1/3 position in Aug. crude from the June 5 daily bottom. We also remain long based upon the daily close of June 18 at $105.72.

2. The more recent June 18 long entry took partial exits at $106.10 on June 19, and another portion exited at $106.68 on June 20.

3. To prevent possible confusion based on both ongoing long positions noted above, this report will follow through with our original June 5 position (which holds a remaining 1/3 long position). Those long from our suggested June 18 long entry at $105.72 also maintain a profitable 1/3 long position and should manage that trade through to completion (this primarily means stop management as subsequent published price targets can be used by those long from June 18, as well).

4. With regard to our main June 5 long position our protective sell stop should be moved to $104.69. This stop will continue to be moved higher as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams