06/28/2015 – S&P Emini
September S&P:
1. During last week (week of June 22) it was noted repeatedly that the decline off the June 22 top would normally be much larger, and in Friday’s live meeting it was noted that a daily close below $2100 would leave the market vulnerable to substantially lower prices.
2. Friday’s session closed at $2095.50, (below $2100) and in the weaker position. Also noted in the meeting was that the critical price level on the downside was approximately $2055, a price that if closed below on the week would take the market out of the strongest possible position. Today’s (Sunday, June 29) Globex session broke hard to the downside and completed $2055 (today’s session low, $2054.00, so far).
3. The next important weekly bottom in the September S&P is expected the week of July 6 (+/-1 week). A daily or especially a weekly close below $2052 is the weaker position and leaves the market vulnerable to lower prices during the July 6 (+/-1 week) timeframe. Such prices would include a possible test/attempt at $1975/$73. Will update as the market continues to confirm.
David Williams
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.