1. Our previous Tuesday, May 13 update indicated that while May 13 closed at all-time new highs (daily close, $1894.25) an initial decline from $1894 to $1887 was expected. Further, any weakness shown below $1887 would indicate a sharp break and decline to $1871/$69, or lower.
2. Yesterdays (Wed. May 14) session completed the forecast decline from $1894 to $1887 and closed the day at $1885.25, below $1887 and in the weaker position.
3. Today’s (Thursday May 13) session produced a sharp decline and completed the $1871/$69 downside target and substantially lower (today’s session low, $1859.00, so far).
4. Self-directed traders exited any short position at/near the $1871/$69 downside target. Substantially lower prices remain possible. Will update
June S&P outlook into week of May 16:
1. Today’s June S&P advanced and closed at new recent price highs (today’s daily close, $1895). Therefore, the June S&P is in the stronger position, for now.
2. In spite of today’s strong close, a test/attempt at nearby $1887 on the downside (or lower) remains likely this week and could offer an important trading opportunity on the long side. Any such test would not damage the current strong market position.
3. However, any new long position based upon the above noted test of $1887 must continue to show bullish behavior or be subject to further decline into Monday, May 19 (+/-1 day) when a further decline and test/attempt at $1871/$69 will occur.
4. The above is an outline into the week of May 16 will be updated as the market confirms.