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04/17/2015 – S&P Emini

  • April 17, 2015
  • S&P Emini

Issued: 04/14/2015

June S&P:

1. As noted in yesterday’s (Mon., April 13) live S&P meeting, the June S&P’s next important daily top was due on April 13 (+1 day) and was expected to provide a tradable decline to at/near $2071/$70 into Thurs., April 16 (+/-1 day).

2. Between now and Thurs., April 16 there should be no daily close above $2098 (and worse case, $2100) or the above-noted decline will be negated. Therefore, the June S&P is now in a ‘Sell’ position for aggressive traders.

3. Initial short position exit should be taken at/near $2078, and the remainder exited at/near $2072/$70. Any remaining position can be held for the possibility of lower prices in a trend following exit to be messaged in a subsequent update.

4. Initial protective buy stops must be placed above $2098, at least initially. This stop will be moved lower as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams

Issued: 04/15/2015

June S&P:

1. As noted in Mon., April 13 live S&P meeting, the June S&P’s next important daily top was due on April 13 (+1 day) and was expected to provide a tradable decline to at/near $2071/$70 into Thurs., April 16 (+/-1 day). Subsequently the June S&P declined into Tues., April 14 approximately 25 points.

2. However, as noted in the report, no daily close above $2098 (and worse case, $2100) was allowable otherwise the above-noted decline would be negated.

3. Today’s (Thurs., April 15) June S&P advanced powerfully and closed the session at $2100.00, neutral to the $2100.00 closing level noted earlier. Because today’s close was neutral, it does not yet fully negate nor confirm the original forecast decline to $2071/$70. Therefore, no new action is being taken in the June S&P until tomorrow’s session. Will update.

David Williams

Issued: 04/17/2015

June S&P:

1. If short based upon the failure at $2091/$88 noted in yesterday’s live meeting, partial short position exit should be taken at current prices (current price, $2079). The remaining position should be held for completion of the larger $2072/$70 downside target. Will update.

David Williams

Issued: 04/17/2015

June S&P:

1. In our Mon., April 13 live S&P meeting (and subsequent updates) it was forecast that the June S&P’s next important daily top was due on April 13 (+1 day) from which a tradable decline to at/near $2072/$70 was expected into Thurs., April 16 (+/-1 day).

2. Subsequently, the June S&P began the forecast decline but then rallied to test the April 13 top on both April 15 and 16th. Today, Fri., April 17, the June S&P broke sharply and completed the forecast $2072/$70 downside target (today session low, $2072.50, so far). This completes the forecast/trade 1 day late.

3. Because of the questionable behavior on April 15/16th yesterday’s (Thurs., April 16) live meeting noted that any significant break of $2091/$88 should be used for new short entry for the completion of the $2072/$70 downside target. This break of $2091/$88 occurred in today’s session and resulted in a successful trade. Will message any further entry or indication in the June S&P.

David Williams

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
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