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04/16/2014 – Crude Oil

  • April 16, 2014
  • Crude Oil

Issued: 04/16/2014

May crude:

1. Aggressive longs from our April 9 long entry in May crude from $102.70 to $103.74 were instructed to raise their protective sell stop to $102.85 in anticipation of higher prices. The subsequent swing low made yesterday, Tuesday, April 15 was $102.91.

2. Today’s May crude advanced further, making a new swing high of $104.99. Much higher prices remain likely into late April, including at/near $106.20, then $107.10. During May 2014 crude oil is expected to test/attempt $112 or higher.

3. Our protective sell stop has been raised to $103.50. This stop will continue to be moved higher as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams

Issued: 04/16/2014

May crude:

1. Today’s May crude declined and hit our previously raised $103.50 protective sell stop. This completes the trade from $102.70 noted in previous updates. Will message any further entry or indication as the market confirms.

David Williams

Issued: 04/07/2014

May crude, latest update:

1. In previous live meetings it was noted that may crude would likely decline and test/attempt at $99.97 into April 8 (+/-1 day). Today’s (Monday, April 7) session completed the $99.97 downside target (session low, $99.92).

2. Today’s test and rebound off the $99.97 downside target continues to be an early indication for higher prices coming into the month of May. Will update with any further entry or indication.

David Williams

Issued: 04/08/2014

May crude, previous update:

1. In previous live meetings it was noted that may crude would likely decline and test/attempt at $99.97 into April 8 (+/-1 day). Today’s (Monday, April 7) session completed the $99.97 downside target (session low, $99.92).

2. Today’s test and rebound off the $99.97 downside target continues to be an early indication for higher prices coming into the month of May. Will update with any further entry or indication.

Latest update:

1. In previous live meetings it was noted that any daily or especially weekly close above $102.70 in May crude would be the earliest indication for continued advance to at/near $103.74 (or higher) into the week of April 21 (+/-11 week). This remains the case.

2. However, today’s May crude oil session closed below $102.70 (session close, $102.36). Therefore, continued hourly and daily close below $102.70 indicates a quick decline and test/attempt at $101.55/$50 (or lower) into Wed., April 10 (+/-1 day).

3. New short entry can be taken in tomorrow’s session upon hourly close below $102.70. Will update.

David Williams

Issued: 04/09/2014

May crude, previous update:

1. In previous live meetings it was noted that any daily or especially weekly close above $102.70 in May crude would be the earliest indication for continued advance to at/near $103.74 (or higher) into the week of April 21 (+/-11 week). This remains the case.

2. However, today’s May crude oil session closed below $102.70 (session close, $102.36). Therefore, continued hourly and daily close below $102.70 indicates a quick decline and test/attempt at $101.55/$50 (or lower) into Wed., April 10 (+/-1 day).

3. New short entry can be taken in tomorrow’s session upon hourly close below $102.70.

Latest update:

1. Today’s May crude session continues to trade above $102.70 which is the stronger position as noted in the previous update.

2. Continued hourly and especially a daily close today (Wed., April 9) above $102.70 indicates continued advance and test/attempt at the $103.74 upside target noted in the previous update.

3. The $103.74 upside target (or higher) could be attempted as early as Thursday April 10 (+1 day). Will update after today’s daily close.

David Williams

Issued: 04/09/2014

May crude, previous update:

1. Today’s May crude session continues to trade above $102.70 which is the stronger position as noted in the previous update.

2. Continued hourly and especially a daily close today (Wed., April 9) above $102.70 indicates continued advance and test/attempt at the $103.74 upside target noted in the previous update.

3. The $103.74 upside target (or higher) could be attempted as early as Thursday April 10 (+1 day). Will update after today’s daily close.

Latest update:

1. Today’s May crude has completed the majority of the forecast advance from $102.70 to at/near $103.74 expected into tomorrow, as noted in the previous update (today’s session high, $103.59, so far).

2. Self-directed longs should exit a portion of any long position based upon the above forecast at current prices (current price, approximately $103.55). A further portion should be exited at/near $103.74. Substantially higher prices remain possible, slightly longer-term. Will update.

David Williams

Issued: 04/09/2014

May crude, previous update:

1. Today’s May crude has completed the majority of the forecast advance from $102.70 to at/near $103.74 expected into tomorrow, as noted in the previous update (today’s session high, $103.59, so far).

2. Self-directed longs should exit a portion of any long position based upon the above forecast at current prices (current price, approximately $103.55). A further portion should be exited at/near $103.74. Substantially higher prices remain possible, slightly longer-term.

Latest update:

1. Today’s May crude completed the forecast advance/trade from $102.70 to at/near $103.74 noted in today’s previous updates (session high, $103.77).

2. Traders exited a portion or all of their long position at/near $103.74.

3. From this point forward, a daily close tomorrow, Thursday, April 10 below $103.74 is the weaker position, above $103.74 the stronger position.

4. Traders holding for the possibility of higher prices should use a protective sell stop at $102.85. This stop will be moved higher as the market continues to confirm.

4. Longer-term, weekly closes above $102.25 are the stronger position in May crude and the earliest indication for a multiweek advance to at/near $106.24. Keep this in mind. Will update.

David Williams

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

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CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
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