07/02/2014 – Crude Oil
Issued: 07/01/2014
Aug. crude oil:
1. As noted in Monday’s (June 30) live meeting, the next important daily bottom in crude oil is due Tuesday, July 1 (+/-1 day). This bottom likely occurred one trading day early on Monday, June 30.
2. Therefore, $105.50/$30 is now buying territory/new long position if touched. Will message any alternate long entry if the $105.50/$30 remains untouched.
3. Initial upside price targets will be messaged if the market confirms as noted above.
4. Once long, place an initial protective sell stop at $104.50. This stop will be moved up as the market continues to confirm.
David Williams
Issued: 07/01/2014
Aug. crude:
1. Today’s Aug. crude declined and triggered our earlier noted buy limit between $105.50/$30 (session low, $104.60). Today’s session closed at $105.20.
2. The market is near a critical juncture on the downside, making the remainder of the week important.
3. Our protective sell stop remains at $104.50. Should this protective stop be triggered, new long entry will be messaged if the market reconfirms.
David Williams
Issued: 07/02/2014
Aug. crude oil:
1. Aug. crude oil remains at a critical juncture on the downside, with today (Wed., July 2) being the one trading day late period for an expected daily bottom.
2. A daily close today above $104.45 would indicate a fast advance to test/attempt at $105.92 (or higher).
3. However, the market has shown unusual behavior which indicates that a more important decline off the Wed., June 25 top may be underway. A daily close today below $104.45 would be the earliest confirmation of such a decline and would target $103.68 (or lower).
4. Our protective sell stop remains at $104.50. This stop will be moved higher if the market confirms.
David Williams
Issued: 07/02/2014
Aug. crude oil:
1. Today’s Aug. crude oil declined further and triggered our protective sell stop at $104.50. This resulted in a loss on the trade (approximately $.80/$1.00/contract depending on entry).
2. Today’s further decline is unusual behavior. A daily close today below $104.45 is the earliest confirmation of further decline and a test of $103.68 (or lower) noted in the previous update.
3. Should today’s Aug. crude oil close above $104.45 a long reentry remains a possible option. Will update if the market confirms.
David Williams
Issued: 07/02/2014
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.