05/05/2014 – 30 YR Treasury Bond

Issued: 05/06/2014

June 30 year U.S. Treasury bond:

1. Sunday’s (May 4) June 30 year U.S. Treasury bond update indicated a likely test and failure at $136.13 and a subsequent decline to at/near $135.15 expected into Tuesday May 6 (+/-1 day).

2. Today’s (Tuesday, May 6) session declined further and attempted the forecast downside target at/near $135.13 and reversed off that level (today’s session low, $135.17, so far).

3. Self-directed traders based upon the original forecast decline and today’s near completion of the $135.13 downside target are likely flat at this point.

4. Any further test/attempt at $135.13 remains important and may prompt new long entry, as noted in the original May 4 update. Will update as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams

Issued: 05/01/2014

June 30 year U.S. Treasury bond:

1. Today’s June 30 year U.S. Treasury bond broke out on the upside and made new recent swing highs at $135.28. $135.28 has not been traded at since Oct. 2013.

2. From this point forward, continued daily and especially a weekly close above $136.00 in the June 30 year U.S. Treasury bond will indicate new long entry for an ongoing multi-month advance and test/attempt at $137.10, then $138.15-$20 (or higher).

3. Due to the longer-term multi-month nature of the above forecast, alternate long (and possibly short) trades could be messaged before or after the confirmed breakout above $136.00 noted in number 2 above. Will update.

David Williams

Issued: 05/04/2014

June 30 year U.S. Treasury bond:

1. The previous longer-term update (published May 1) remains valid until further notice.

2. Although not an outright forecast, continued hourly and especially a daily close below $136.13 in the June 30 year U.S. Treasury bond is the weaker position and may prompt a test/attempt at $135.13 into early next week (week of May 5).

3. Whether the above indication is subsequently traded or not, the longer-term indication indicates higher prices likely and any such decline to $135.13 may be used as new long entry. Will message any such entry (either short or long) if the market further confirms

David Williams

Issued: 05/05/2014

June 30 year U.S. Treasury bond:

1. Sunday’s (May 4) June 30 year U.S. Treasury bond update indicated a likely test and failure at $136.13 and a subsequent decline to at/near $135.13.

2. Today’s session tested the $136.13 upside target and failed. This indicates the likelihood of lower prices, including a test/attempt at $135.13 into tomorrow, Tuesday, May 6 (+/-1 day).

3. Aggressive should place a sell limit/new short position at/near $136.05. Initial exit should be taken at/near $135.29. The remainder exited at/near $135.13.

4. Protective stop should be placed at $136.15. This stop will be moved lower as the market continues to confirm.

David Williams